Novedades de Petroleo y Algo mas

by Kurt Wulff (McDep Associates)

Gazprom on Monday nominated two Moscow business figures as independent members of its board of directors.

The board nominated Alexander Shokhin, the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, or RSPP, and Yevgeny Yasin, the rector of the Higher School of Economics, Gazprom said in a statement Monday.

Gazprom shareholders will choose a new board from 19 candidates on June 29, the company said. All 11 current members, including First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, CEO Alexei Miller and Economic Development and Trade Minister German Gref, are on the new list. Shokhin, the head of the RSPP since 2005, is a former chairman of Renaissance Capital’s supervisory board. Shokhin will head a delegation of RSPP members at a meeting with President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin on Tuesday, ahead of the organization’s 15th-anniversary celebration Wednesday.

Yasin, who served as economy minister under President Boris Yeltsin, is one of the country’s most respected liberal academics.

The Gazprom board also decided to sell a 50.67 percent stake in its petrochemical unit, Sibur Holding. Gazprom has been in talks with potential buyers BASF, Dow Chemical and PetroChina for more than two years. The board also said that by 2011 it planned to increase daily output capacity from underground storage facilities by more than one-quarter.

The system includes deeper analysis of customer data and behavioural patterns to enhance its customer view. The company is using software from SPSS across the business including its customer services, sales and marketing departments to achieve more targeted marketing activities.

Benefits include more tailored marketing campaigns communicating offers to the most relevant customers which the organisation hopes will increase response rates as well as saving both time and resources.

‘In a competitive, mature market it’s vital we understand our customers as well as possible,’ said Ian Wood, head of sales process at Scottish and Southern Energy.

‘It’s the best way to get a clear understanding of where the business is going and how we can stay ahead of our competitors,’ he said. Other benefits include faster and more accurate data collection and analysis through merging data from different channels including telephone, post and internet on to a single platform.

COMPUTING.UK

Fourth-quarter net income declined 22 percent to $2.88 billion, or 15 cents per share, from $3.69 billion, or 18 cents, a year earlier, London-based BP said today. The stock had its biggest drop in about three weeks as the company said further delays at the Atlantis and Thunder Horse Gulf of Mexico rigs will crimp output this year and next.

Last year’s drop in production was the first since Chief Executive Officer John Browne spent $100 billion buying Amoco Corp. and Atlantic Richfield Co. and was caused by lost output from Alaska and delays at the two Gulf rigs. Profit was lower than at BP’s bigger competitors Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp.

BP has been a disappointing investment,'' said Andy Brough, who helps oversee about $7.6 billion at Schroder Investment Management in London, including BP shares.There’s an old saying `elephants don’t gallop’ and it’s very hard when you get to a big size to actually meet the expectations of 10 percent growth people are looking for.’’

BP, whose reputation was buffeted by a fatal Texas refinery blast, last month said Browne would advance his retirement. Tony Hayward, the former head of exploration and production, will replace Browne as chief executive officer on Aug. 1.

Shares Drop
Shares in BP dropped 10.5 pence, or 1.9 percent to 531 pence as of 12:30 p.m. in London today. The stock has lost 6.6 percent so far this year, following an 8.3 percent slide in 2006. Of the 36 analyst recommendations monitored by Bloomberg, 21, or 58 percent, give BP a buy'' recommendation, while 9 sayhold’’ and 6 advise sell.'' </p><div> </div><p> Excluding changes in the value of oil inventories, profit matched analyst estimates. Based on this measure, quarterly profit fell 12 percent to $3.895 billion, in line with the $3.89 billion predicted in a Bloomberg survey of nine analysts. The company refers to that measure as replacement cost profit. BP's profit figures included a net non-operating charge of $152 million. </p><div> </div><p> Atlantis will be up and running by the end of 2007, and Thunder Horse by the end of the following year, Hayward told reporters in London today. Atlantis was originally scheduled to start last year and Thunder Horse in late 2005. The delays will curb output this year by 150,000 barrels a day and by 100,000 barrels a day in 2008, Hayward said. </p><div> </div><div> </div><p><span> Production Forecast</span><br />For 2006 as a whole, production fell 2.2 percent to 3.93 million barrels a day, and the company forecast output would likely drop this year to between 3.8 million barrels a day and 3.9 million barrels a day. Daily output will exceed 4 million barrels by 2009 and 4.3 million barrels by 2012, it said. </p><div> </div><p> Output will rise starting next year, Browne said in an interview with Bloomberg today. Shortages of some equipment and personnel were forcing BP to becautious’’ when forecasting output, he said.

The production guidance for 2012 can be seen as positive,'' said Jason Kenney, an analyst at ING Wholesale Banking in Edinburgh, who has ahold’’ rating on the stock. This is quite a neutral set of numbers.'' </p><div> </div><p> BP's quarterly oil and gas production declined 4.5 percent from a year ago to 3.84 million barrels a day, its sixth year-on- year quarterly drop. The company lowered production expectations on Oct. 24, when it said asset sales and the effect of high prices on production-sharing contracts meant an earlier guidance was no longer valid. </p><div> </div><div> </div><p><span> Shell, Exxon</span><br />Its quarterly production drop contrasts with Shell which said last week that production in the period rose 4.1 percent to 3.65 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. Shell on Feb. 1 reported a 21 percent jump in fourth-quarter net income to $5.28 billion while Exxon posted net income of $10.3 billion the same day. </p><div> </div><p> Browne, who is stepping down more than a year ahead of plan, was criticized in a report last month, which said he failed to provide the leadership needed to keep the company's U.S. refineries safe. </p><div> </div><p> The report was prepared by a committee led by former U.S. Secretary of State, James A. Baker III. It also concluded that the company failed to make safe practicesa core value across all of its five U.S. refineries.’’

Prudhoe Bay Leak
BP was forced to shut down more than half of its 400,000 barrel-a-day Prudhoe Bay field in Alaska in August after oil leaked from pipelines that hadn’t been adequately monitored for corrosion. Normal production resumed mid-October.

The company’s refining global indicator margin, a measure of the profitability of its refineries worldwide, fell to $6.30 a barrel in the fourth quarter, from $7.60 in the year-earlier period, the company said last month. It was also down from $8.40 in the third quarter of 2006.

The March 2005 explosion at BP’s Texas City, Texas, refinery killed 15 workers and injured hundreds. The company was fined and criticized by U.S. regulators and lawmakers and set aside $1.6 billion to cover victims’ legal claims.

BP’s proved reserves replacement ratio, using U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission accounting standards, was 113 percent, excluding acquisitions and disposals.

Capital expenditure, excluding acquisitions and including a $1 billion investment in Russia’s OAO Rosneft, was about $16.9 billion last year, BP said. Spending will rise to about $18 billion in 2007, it said.

by Grant Smith and Nesa Subrahmaniyan

Below-average temperatures will last through Feb. 18, the National Weather Service said yesterday. U.S. stockpiles of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel may have declined 2.88 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 2, according to the median of forecasts by 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The colder weather has played a role,'' said Frederic Lasserre, the head of commodities research at Societe Generale in Paris.The market can break the $60-a-barrel mark, and even test $65 by the end of the first quarter.’’

Crude oil for March delivery rose as much as $1.11 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $59.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $59.81 at 12:32 p.m. in London.

Brent crude oil for March settlement rose as much as $1.11 cents, or 1.9 percent, to $59.21 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange. The contract traded at $59.12 at 12:33 p.m. local time.

Temperatures fell to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 12 Celsius) in Boston overnight on Feb. 4-5, when 22 degrees is the normal low at this time of year, Michael Palmerino, a forecaster at Lexington, Massachusetts-based Meteorlogix LLC said yesterday.

It will stay below normal and much below normal for the next week to 10 days,'' Palmerino said.It will take time for the weather pattern to change and for the cold air mass to retreat back into Canada.’’

Enough to Last
Crude oil and heating oil supplies still seem more than adequate'' to last through the winter, said Gerard Burg, a minerals and energy economist at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Melbourne. Gasoline stockpiles arelooking a bit tight’’ before spring, when demand increases in the U.S., he said.

Gasoline inventories probably rose 1.78 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 2, the Bloomberg News survey showed. Crude-oil supplies jumped 1.2 million barrels, according to the median of responses.

The consensus on gasoline is not that aggressive,'' said Societe Generale's Lasserre.We’ll start the pre-season with significant stocks. There’s less global appetite for oil among investors.’’

Yesterday, oil fell 28 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $58.74 after rising to $59.95, the highest intraday price since Jan. 3. Prices are 9.5 percent lower than a year ago.

A price gain of 19 percent since Jan. 16 has been caused by renewed buying among investment funds, Lasserre said.

Nigerian Unrest
Unrest resurfaced in Nigeria, where gunmen kidnapped a Filipino working for Royal Dutch Shell Plc, killing a police escort during the attack, according to Agence-France Presse. Militant attacks since last February have slashed oil output by nearly a quarter in Nigeria, the sixth-biggest member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Leaders of the top oil unions said withdrawal of staff from the Niger Delta remains a possibility unless they receive assurances of safety from President Olusegun Obasanjo.

The Petroleum & Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria, or Pengassan, and the National Union of Petroleum & Natural Gas Workers, or Nupeng, last week threatened to pull members from the Niger Delta today.

The unions never officially committed to the action. They were scheduled to meet Obasanjo in Abuja yesterday, said Lumumba Okugbawa, the Pengassan deputy general secretary. A decision on whether to withdraw oil workers from the delta would be made after the meeting, Okugbawa said.

Violence in the Nigeria Delta has intensified in the past year, with more than 200 people being kidnapped, the majority of them Nigerian.

by Masahiro Hidaka and Mayumi Otsuma

Contracts for the exchange of overnight interest rates today showed a 43 percent chance the central bank will increase borrowing costs at the next policy board meeting, up from 33 percent on Feb. 1, according to Credit Suisse Group. Bank of Japan policy makers will next meet Feb. 20-21.

Governor Toshihiko Fukui and his policy board colleagues last month held the key overnight lending rate at 0.25 percent in a 6-3 vote, with most members saying they need more evidence prices will keep rising. Since the decision, a report showed the U.S. economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter and oil prices rebounded after falling to the lowest since May 2005.

The report on U.S. gross domestic product considerably diminished concerns about a sharp economic slowdown in the U.S., which the Bank of Japan was citing as an economic risk,'' said Tetsufumi Yamakawa, a former central bank official who's now chief economist at Goldman Sachs Japan Co. in Tokyo.The actual probability of a rate hike is higher’’ than that suggested by the overnight rate future index, he said.

Fukui told parliament on Feb. 2 that the world’s second- largest economy is steadily'' moving toward sustainable expansion. </p><div> </div><div> </div><p><span> Oil's Rebound</span><br />Hideo Hayakawa, the Bank of Japan's top economist, said last week before the release of the U.S. GDP data that he's monitoring the U.S. economy because a housing-industry slump there might not be over. Japan's exports to the U.S. rose to a record in 2006. </p><div> </div><p> The U.S. economy, Japan's largest export market, grew at an annual 3.5 percent pace last quarter, faster than the 3 percent expected by economists. Growth in service industries accelerated more than forecast last month, a report showed yesterday. </p><div> </div><p> Crude oil has risen about 17 percent since dipping below $50 a barrel on Jan. 18, easing concerns that Japan's core consumer prices may soon fall and hamper the central bank's plans to raise interest rates. Core prices, a key measure of inflation, exclude fresh food but include energy. </p><div> </div><p> Three-month Euroyen futures for March delivery, which suggest where three-month interest rates will be in March, yielded 0.61 percent today, up from 0.585 percent on Jan. 31. </p><div> </div><div> </div><p> Possible Split<br />Governor Fukui has said interest rates need to be raised gradually to prevent excessive investment and asset bubbles as long as the economy and prices evolve according to the bank's forecasts. Fukui won't shy away from raising rates even if his views depart from those of others on his policy board, according to Masuhisa Kobayashi. </p><div> </div><p>If Fukui resolves to take action, we believe the bank will decide by majority vote to raise rates in February,’’ said Kobayashi, chief Japan bond strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.

Kazumasa Iwata, one of the bank’s two deputy governors, would probably vote against a rate increase in February, said Masaaki Kanno, a former central bank official who’s now chief economist at JPMorgan Securities Japan Co.

And even if that happens, Governor Fukui will probably consider he has no other choice but to accept a split'' among the bank's top three officials, Kanno said. </p><div> </div><p> If so, it would be the first time since the Bank of Japan Law was enacted in 1998 that the governor and at least one of his deputies voted differently. Iwata has said the central bank should maintain a low-interest-rate policy until the bank can foresee a 1 percent gain in core prices. </p><div> </div><div> </div><p> `Three Defeats, One Draw'<br />Fukui said on Jan. 18 that each of the Bank of Japan's nine board members makes an independent decision and it'stheoretically possible’’ that he and his two deputy chiefs may have different opinions in the future.

Some economists said recent economic statistics, which Fukui last week said were mixed,'' may remain a hurdle to a February rate increase. Inflation slowed in December, household spending declined more than expected, and wages fell at the fastest pace in 16 months. Industrial production, meanwhile, climbed for a third consecutive month to a record. </p><div> </div><p>Output, though the headline number was strong, should be regarded as neutral’’ because of a buildup of technology-related inventories, said Chotaro Morita, chief fixed-income strategist at Deutsche Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. Recent data means three defeats and one draw.'' </p><div> </div><div> </div><p><span> Iwata's Measure</span><br />Core prices rose 0.1 percent in December, slower than a 0.2 percent increase a month earlier. Oil's drop in the second half of 2006 may result in core prices failing to increase and even declining in coming months, according to economists. </p><div> </div><p> Prices excluding gasoline and one-off factors including cuts in mobile-phone charges fell 0.2 percent in December, more than a 0.1 percent drop in November. Iwata has said attention should be paid to the measure, known ascore core’’ prices, to check the real strength of inflation.

Fukui said last month that a drop in core prices because of oil wouldn’t diminish the chance for an interest-rate increase because cheaper oil would help economic growth.